| Titre : | Coping with a dual shock: The economic effects of COVID-19 and oil price crises on African economies (2021) |
| Auteurs : | Theophile Azomahou ; Njuguna Ndung'u ; Mahamady Ouedraogo |
| Type de document : | Article : Revues - Articles |
| Dans : | Resources Policy (Vol. 72, August 2021) |
| Note générale : | Article 102093 |
| Langues: | Anglais |
| Catégories : |
[Eurovoc] ÉCONOMIE > analyse économique > prévision économique [Eurovoc] ÉCONOMIE > situation économique > développement économique > croissance économique [Eurovoc] ÉNERGIE > industrie pétrolière > industrie pétrolière > extraction du pétrole [Eurovoc] GÉOGRAPHIE > Afrique [Eurovoc] QUESTIONS SOCIALES > santé > maladie > épidémie [JEL] I - Santé, éducation et programmes sociaux > I1 - Santé > I15 - Santé et développement économique |
| Tags : | Africa ; growth forecast ; oil-dependence ; COVID-19 |
| Résumé : | Oil-dependent countries face a twin-shock: in addition to the COVID-19 outbreak, they are facing an oil price collapse. In this paper, we study the impact of this dual shock on the forecasted GDP growth in Africa using the COVID-19 outbreak as a natural experiment. We use the IMF World Economic Outlook’s GDP growth forecasts before and after the outbreak. We find that COVID-19 related deaths result in -2.75 percentage points forecasted GDP growth loss in the all sample while oil-dependence induces -7.6 percentage points loss. We document that the joint shock entails higher forecasted growth loss in oil-dependent economies (-10.75 percentage points). Based on oil price forecasts and our empirical findings, we identify five recovery policies with high potential: social safety net policy, economic diversification, innovation and technological transformation, fiscal discipline, and climate-friendly recovery policy. |
| Doi : |
DOI : 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102093 
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| Axe de recherche : | Financement du développement |
| En ligne : | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03344118 |
Documents numériques (1)
 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03344118/file/Coping%20with%20a%20dual%20shock_The%20economic%20effects%20of%20COVID-19%20and%20oil%20price%20crises%20on%20African%20economies.pdf URL |
