| Title: | Climate instability, urbanization and international migration (2016) |
| Authors: | Mathilde Maurel, Author ; Michele Tuccio, Author |
| In : | The Journal of Development Studies (Vol. 52 N°5, 2016) |
| Article on page: | pp. 735-752 |
| Languages: | English |
| Descriptors: |
[Eurovoc] ECONOMICS > economic analysis > economic analysis > econometrics > economic model [Eurovoc] ENVIRONMENT > deterioration of the environment > degradation of the environment > climate change [Eurovoc] SOCIAL QUESTIONS > construction and town planning > town planning > urbanisation [Eurovoc] SOCIAL QUESTIONS > migration |
| Tags: | urbanization ; panel analysis ; climate instability ; international migration |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on climate-induced migration. We construct a simple theoretical model where, in a first step, climate shocks accelerate the transition from the traditional to the modern sector, leading rural workers to move to urban centres within national borders, while in a second step, downward pressures on wages due to the greater labour supply in cities push people to engage in international migration. To test this hypothesis, we exploit a rich panel dataset, displaying a representative picture of bilateral migration flows and climatic data across 222 countries for the period 1960–2000. Findings suggest that in the next few years the climate-induced growth rate of migrant stocks might be in a range between 8.6 per cent and 12.8 per cent, especially from developing countries, where the level of rural employment is more likely to be affected by climatic shocks. |
| Doi : |
DOI : 10.1080/00220388.2015.1121240 
|
| Axe de recherche : | Intégration des pays en développement dans l'économie mondialisée |
| Link for e-copy: | https://hal.science/hal-01225458 |
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