| Title: | Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis |
| Authors: | Antoine Cazals ; Pierre Mandon |
| Publisher: | Clermont-Ferrand : Centre d'études et de recherches sur le développement international (Cerdi), 2015 |
| Series: | Études et Documents Cerdi, ISSN 2114-7957, num. 33 |
| Languages: | English |
| Descriptors: |
[Eurovoc] FINANCE > budget > budgetary expenditure > public expenditure [Eurovoc] FINANCE > public finance and budget policy > budget policy |
| Tags: | political cycles ; budget manipulation ; meta-analysis |
| Abstract: | Despite a long history of research on political budget cycles, their existence and magnitudeare still in question. By conducting a systematic analysis of the existing literature we intendto clarify the debate. Based on data collected from over 1,700 regressions and 58 studies, our meta-analysis suggests that leaders do manipulate fiscal tools in order to be re-elected but to an extent that is significantly exaggerated by scholars. However, we show the incumbents' strategy differ depending on which tools they leverage. Finally, we discuss in further details how authors' methodological choices and country institutions affect political budget cycles. |
| Axe de recherche : | Financement du développement |
| Link for e-copy: | https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01238883 |
E-copies (1)
 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01238883/file/2015.33.pdf URL |
